Stable weather makes getting dressed simple. If it's going to be 18°C and overcast all day, you pick something appropriate for 18°C and overcast. Changeable weather is a different problem. The feels-like temperature can shift 10 degrees or more across a single day, and there's no outfit that's simultaneously right for 13°C drizzle and 22°C sunshine.
The answer is layering, but not just wearing more clothes. Layering done well means each layer has a specific job.
What each layer does
The base layer sits against your skin. Its job is moisture management: moving sweat away from the skin surface so it doesn't sit there cooling you. Synthetic fabrics and merino wool do this better than cotton, which holds moisture and stays damp.
The mid layer provides warmth by trapping air. A fleece, a light down jacket, a wool sweater. This is the layer you take off and stuff in a bag when the afternoon warms up.
The outer layer handles wind and rain. It needs to be windproof and, depending on the forecast, waterproof or at least water-resistant. This one often ends up around your waist or in your bag for half the day, which is fine. That's what it's for.
How to match the strategy to the forecast
| Forecast | Practical approach |
|---|---|
| 10-18°C, sun and showers | Thin base shirt + windproof jacket |
| 13-22°C, mixed cloud | Light sweater + something packable for your bag |
| 8-15°C, rain likely | Water-resistant outer layer, skip the shorts |
| 15-25°C, potential evening storm | Start light, pack a jacket |
The key variable in each case is not the maximum or minimum temperature. It's the range between them. A 10-degree swing during the day means one outfit will be wrong at some point. A packable layer bridges that gap.
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Checking the hourly forecast
On changeable days the daily summary is almost useless for dressing decisions. What you want is the hourly breakdown: when does the rain arrive, how cold does it get in the morning before the sun comes up, what happens at 6pm when you're heading home. KorteBroekAan.nl uses hourly data, so checking it for the specific time you'll be outside gives a more accurate answer than looking at the day's headline number.
The articles on why mornings feel colder and why evenings cool down quickly explain the temperature arc that makes layering necessary. The full Weather Explained section covers all the individual factors.
Further reading
Related articles in the Weather Explained section:
Read next
Why weather apps sometimes feel different from outside
The app said 18°C and pleasant. You're outside in five minutes and you're cold. Or the reverse. Here's why that gap exists and what to do about it.
Why drizzle feels different from a rain shower
Drizzle looks harmless and often is, until it isn't. The difference between fine rain and heavy showers goes beyond wetness rates.
Why 15 degrees sometimes feels warm and sometimes cold
15°C in April after a cold winter feels like liberation. The same temperature in September feels like summer is over. Both reactions make complete sense.
Why 20 degrees is not always shorts weather
20°C sounds like it should be comfortable. And often it is. But add enough wind or cloud cover and it stops feeling that way fairly quickly.
Shorts in overcast weather: when is it still OK?
Cloud cover removes the warmth you normally get from the sun. We explain how much impact cloud cover has and when shorts are still realistic in overcast conditions.